December Nasdaq 100 E-Mini futures (NQZ23) are trending down -0.33% this morning as a weak sales forecast for the holiday quarter from Apple weighed on sentiment, while investors looked ahead to the key monthly U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for further conviction on the Fed’s rate path.

Apple Inc (AAPL) fell over -3% in pre-market trading after the world’s most valuable tech company reported better-than-expected Q4 results but warned that revenue in the holiday quarter will be about the same as last year.

In Thursday’s trading session, the benchmark S&P 500, blue-chip Dow, and tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose to 2-week highs. Starbucks Corporation (SBUX) surged over +9% after the world’s largest coffee chain posted stronger-than-expected Q4 comparable sales. Also, PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) climbed more than +6% after the payment tech company reported better-than-expected Q3 results and raised its full-year adjusted profit forecast. In addition, Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) gained over +5% after the semiconductor company posted upbeat Q4 results and provided strong Q1 guidance. On the bearish side, Moderna Inc (MRNA) plunged more than -6% after the drugmaker swung to a quarterly loss on resizing and write-downs related to its COVID-19 vaccine and said it expected revenue to fall sharply next year.

The Labor Department’s report on Thursday showed claims for state unemployment benefits rose +5K to a seasonally adjusted 217K last week, higher than the expected figure of 210K. Also, U.S. nonfarm productivity came in at +4.7% q/q in the third quarter, stronger than expectations of +4.1% q/q. In addition, U.S. Q3 unit labor costs unexpectedly fell -0.8% q/q, weaker than expectations of +0.7% q/q. Finally, U.S. factory orders rose +2.8% m/m in September, stronger than expectations of +2.4% m/m and the biggest increase in 2-3/4 years.

Meanwhile, U.S. rate futures have priced in a 19.6% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the December FOMC meeting and a 27.2% chance of a 25 basis point rate increase at the conclusion of the Fed’s January meeting.

In other news, UBS expects that the 10-year Treasury yield will decline to 3.5% by June next year as the Fed transitions its focus from rate hikes to rate cuts, as outlined by Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer for Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management. 

Today, all eyes are focused on U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls data in a couple of hours. Economists, on average, forecast that October Nonfarm Payrolls will come in at 180K, compared to the previous value of 336K.

“Friday payrolls will be critical. If we get a weak report, rates will continue their move lower, but financial conditions may not loosen further since a recession may look more imminent. A strong report, and then the market will watch the Fed nervously to see if they will react,” said Priya Misra, portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management

Also, investors will likely focus on U.S. Private Nonfarm Payrolls data, which stood at 263K in September. Economists foresee the new figure to be 158K.

U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI will be reported today. Economists foresee this figure to stand at 53.0 in October, compared to the previous number of 53.6.

U.S. S&P Global Services PMI will come in today. Economists estimate that S&P Global Services PMI will come in at 50.9 in October, compared to 50.1 in September.

U.S. Average Hourly Earnings data will also be closely watched today. Economists anticipate October’s figures to be +0.3% m/m and +4.0% y/y, compared to the previous numbers of +0.2% m/m and +4.2% y/y.

The U.S. Unemployment Rate will be reported today as well. Economists foresee this figure to remain steady at 3.8% in October.

In the bond markets, United States 10-year rates are at 4.663%, down -0.15%.

The Euro Stoxx 50 futures are up +0.43% this morning as optimism about the potential conclusion of monetary policy tightening by major central banks boosted sentiment while investors also awaited a U.S. payrolls report. Automobile stocks outperformed on Friday, with Bayerische Motoren Werke Ag (BMW.D.DX) rising over +2% after the company’s Q3 automotive operating margin topped expectations. Data on Friday showed that Germany’s trade surplus shrank in September as exports and imports fell more than expected, indicating a challenging economic environment for German businesses at home and abroad. Meanwhile, the Bank of England kept its key interest rate unchanged at 5.25% on Thursday and said a “restrictive” policy is likely needed for an extended period to curb inflation. In other corporate news, Andritz Ag (ANDR.V.DX) climbed more than +5% after JPMorgan upgraded the stock to Overweight from Neutral.

Germany’s Trade Balance, Germany’s Exports, Germany’s Imports, U.K.’s Composite PMI, U.K.’s Services PMI, and Eurozone’s Unemployment Rate were released today.

The German September Trade Balance arrived at 16.5B, stronger than expectations of 16.3B.

The German September Exports stood at -2.4% m/m, weaker than expectations of -1.1% m/m. 

The German September Imports came in at -1.7% m/m, weaker than expectations of +0.5% m/m.

U.K. October Composite PMI has been reported at 48.7, stronger than expectations of 48.6.

U.K. October Services PMI arrived at 49.5, stronger than expectations of 49.2.

Eurozone September Unemployment Rate was at 6.5%, weaker than expectations of 6.4%.

China’s Shanghai Composite Index (SHCOMP) closed up +0.71%, while Japanese markets were closed for a holiday.

China’s Shanghai Composite today closed higher. A private-sector survey released on Friday indicated that China’s services sector expanded at a slightly quicker pace in October, though sales saw their slowest growth in 10 months and employment remained stagnant, reflecting declining business confidence. Meanwhile, consumer-related stocks led the gains on Friday. Also, shares of Apple suppliers in Hong Kong rallied on Friday after the U.S. company said iPhone demand in China was strong, with BYD rising over +3%, Aac Technologies Holdings Inc climbing more than +7%, and Sunny Optical Technology Group Co Ltd gaining over +5%. In other corporate news, Li Ning Co Ltd soared more than +6% after filings showed that Singapore sovereign fund GIC had boosted its stake in the sportswear group. 

“Market sentiment towards China stocks will stay volatile in the near term unless investors see positive signs such as housing market stabilization and improvement in the Sino-U.S. relationships,” analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a note.

The Chinese October Caixin Services PMI stood at 50.4, weaker than expectations of 51.2.

Pre-Market U.S. Stock Movers

Apple Inc (AAPL) fell over -3% in pre-market trading after the world’s most valuable tech company reported better-than-expected Q4 results but warned that revenue in the holiday quarter will be about the same as last year.

Block Inc (SQ) surged more than +18% in pre-market trading after the company posted upbeat Q3 results, announced a $1B stock buyback program, and provided a strong 2024 outlook.

Fortinet Inc (FTNT) slumped about -24% in pre-market trading after reporting mixed Q3 results and offering a below-consensus Q4 sales forecast.

DraftKings Inc (DKNG) climbed over +6% in pre-market trading after the digital sports betting and gaming company reported better-than-expected Q3 results and raised its full-year outlook.

Cloudflare Inc (NET) fell more than -5% in pre-market trading after the content delivery network and cloud security platform issued soft Q4 revenue guidance.

Uber Technologies Inc (UBER) rose over +1% in pre-market trading after KeyBanc upgraded the stock to Overweight from Sector Weight.

You can see more pre-market stock movers here

Today’s U.S. Earnings Spotlight: Friday – November 3rd

Enbridge (ENB), Sempra Energy (SRE), Microchip (MCHP), Dominion Energy (D), Gartner (IT), Cardinal Health (CAH), Church&Dwight (CHD), Cboe Global (CBOE), Magna Intl (MGA), Corebridge Financial (CRBG), W. P. Carey Inc (WPC), Brookfield Renewable (BEP), Plains All American Pipeline (PAA), Icahn Enterprises (IEP), Healthcare RT (HR), Fluor (FLR), Plains GP Holdings (PAGP), Moog (MOGa), United States Cellular (USM), Brookfield Business (BBU), Gates Industrial Corp (GTES), Privia Health Group (PRVA), Telephone&Data Systems (TDS), Bloomin Brands (BLMN), Cinemark (CNK), TELUS International (TIXT), Atmus Filtration Tech (ATMU), Northwest Natural Gas (NWN), Shenandoah (SHEN), Owens&Minor (OMI), Marcus & Millichap (MMI), US Silica (SLCA), GrafTech (EAF), Fubotv (FUBO), Koppers (KOP), American Axle&Manufacturing (AXL), AdvanSix (ASIX), Fulgent Genetics (FLGT), Proto Labs (PRLB), Editas Medicine (EDIT), AMC Networks (AMCX), Interface (TILE), Ares Commercial RE (ACRE), Iradimed Co (IRMD), EW Scripps A (SSP), Silvercrest Asset Management Group (SAMG), Trinseo SA (TSE), Summit Midstream Partners LP (SMLP), Arcutis (ARQT).

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On the date of publication, Oleksandr Pylypenko did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.